Dr. Vlahos is absolutely correct about the urgent need for a permanent peace agreement; a ceasefire will not be sufficient. Russia has alway made clear what are its security objectives (no NATO membership for Ukraine and a pan-European security agreement). However, the US War Party has always hidden its prime objective to weaken Russia with moral rhetoric designed to manipulate and control American public opinion. The question is how do we break free of the assumptions and beliefs imposed by such elites which have resulted in so much death and destruction?
Dear Luca, I was being deliberately conservative. Personally I feel that your higher total, tragically, is probably closer to the true number. I have 'irrecoverable' casualties at ~1.2 million, you have it a couple hundred thousand higher. Our 'invalid' wounded figures are the same: 420k. However, you put KIA considerably higher, and ~1 million. This is very distressing, and almost certainly true.
This is an analytical difficulty that US/NATO voices fear to parse. The key variable here is the longstanding incapacity of Ukraine to extract its wounded from the forward edge of the battle area [FEBA] in time to save their lives. Thus, there is for Ukraine, an unacknowledged descent into ancient casualty results. Whereas in Modernity, the KIA-to-WIA ratio might be 4:1 — or in the 'golden hour' dispensation of Americans in Iraq, 16:1 — for Ukrainian troopers their prospects, frankly, are worse than those of World War I, or even the American Civil War. Hence, I would expect, when it all comes out, that there are something like a million Ukrainian wounded. Many crippled, many amputees. Ukrainian amputees are already greater in number than what the German Empire suffered in World War I!
Acoording to NYT article of August 18th, 2023 the most optimistic ratio was 1,71 (120k wounded and 70k dead). A very close ratio was given by Ukrainian Telegram channel Resident on November 5th, 2024 where, commenting the Kursk incursion, they wrote about 30k casualties and they specified that 11k were the dead and 19k wounded. In this case the ratio was about 1,73.
The association of American military surgeons wrote an article about the misuse of tourniquets in Ukraine that were justified only in 25% of the cases.
If we consider the last 8 exchanges of corpses, the Ukrainians received 3547 bodies against 380 Russian ones.
At the beginning of December 2024, again Ukrainian Telegram channel Resident claimed about 420k war invalids.
A couple of humanitarian organizations (including houp) confirmed such numbers.
In July 2023 Hanna Malyar wrote that 18% of the wounded became invalids. That percentage of invalids grew to 30% in September 2024 according to Anatoliy Kazmirchuk, Commander of the Medical Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, due to the use of more powerful bombs by the Russian aviation like the FAB-1500 and FAB-3000.
A roughly average gives the % of invalids at 25.
420k invalids equals to about 1,68 millions of total wounded.
1,68 millions of total wounded divided by a ratio of about 1,72 wounded to killed brings the number of Ukrainians dead soldiers at around a million.
A count of obituaries (like Mediazona does for the other side) kept by Slavyangrad stands at 559k Ukrainians dead soldiers. WarTears, an Ukrainian site and Telegram Channel, places it’s latest estimate at 663k Ukrainians dead soldiers.
If, like Mediazona does, we consider the numbers found as lower than the real numbers, we easily reach the million mark explained above.
By collecting in the last 3 years the equivalent of 4 or 5 pages of A4 of OSINT “evidence” from Ukrainian and Western sources, I was able to gather what I wrote here.
This is an analytical difficulty that US/NATO voices fear to parse. The key variable here is the longstanding incapacity of Ukraine to extract its wounded from the forward edge of the battle area [FEBA] in time to save their lives. Thus, there is for Ukraine, an unacknowledged descent into ancient casualty results. Whereas in Modernity, the KIA-to-WIA ratio might be 4:1 — or in the 'golden hour' dispensation of Americans in Iraq, 16:1 — for Ukrainian troopers their prospects, frankly, are worse than those of World War I, or even the American Civil War. Hence, I would expect, when it all comes out, that there are something like a million Ukrainian wounded. Many crippled, many amputees. Ukrainian amputees are already greater in number than what the German Empire suffered in World War I!
What may help change the narrative would be to release to the public the negotiations before the war, three days of zoom calls between Biden and Putin.
Though reported on at the time, they seem to have been memory-holed, likely because they complicate the "unprovoked" framing. Putin wanted to fly over for face-to-face meetings but was refused. Politico did a large piece on it at the time, saying how Biden spent his time in between talks lining up what were to be "crippling" sanctions with European leaders. But all I can find of the story now is a short, empty white house statement about "the importance of negotiations" but a refusal to hear any talk of invasions.
Surely the public would be interested in hearing what was said? History deserves to know.
Thanks for your reply. The truth will come to light only with a new census. Up to that point, It is very easy for Ukrainian authorities to conceal any casualties. They are the first not knowing the true numbers of inhabitants where to start the reckonings. I agree, it is a tragedy of enormous proportions and when I read about lowering the draft age down to 18, nothing good could ever come out of it and my stomach churns. First the age section between 25 and 18 years is the shortest branch in the Ukrainian demographic tree, a clear sign of desperation. And second it means to send to their death the persons that should become parents in the next few years. In other words it is a ricept towards the abyss.
The scariest part is how the carnage has been so completely concealed from the public! Despite the Internet and a supposed free press, there has been a complete blanket surrounding information on the true state of the war for the last 1,000 days.
The Western media did their best to conceal as much as possible, but if you, like I did, have had the patience to collect information (the equivalent of 4 - 5 A4 pages) from serious Telegram channels and articles that here and there inevitably came to the surface, ranging from the volume of firepower applied, the status of the healthcare system, the wounded to killed ratios, the total numbers of war invalids, the invalids as a percentage of the total wounded, critics to the misuse of tourniquets, too slow times of evacuations of the wounded, exchanged corpses ratios, and so on…you can gather enough information to be able to estimate (of course with a certain level of uncertainty, but also with a high level of confidence) that the Ukrainian losses are around 3 millions, including about 1 million dead and 420 thousands war invalids. All these informations have been written in the last 3 years, and with numbers provided by Western and Ukrainian OSINT sources alone.
Yes, but in the UK, US, Canada, etc there is still a complete traditional and online media blackout around this. You are a special case of person doing all their own research. It is frightening that reporters aren’t doing the same work, or are doing it but not allowed to publish.
Acoording to NYT article of August 18th, 2023 the most optimistic ratio was 1,71 (120k wounded and 70k dead). A very close ratio was given by Ukrainian Telegram channel Resident on November 5th, 2024 where, commenting the Kursk incursion, they wrote about 30k casualties and they specified that 11k were the dead and 19k wounded. In this case the ratio was about 1,73.
With such a wounded to killed ratio you could add another 1,34 millions to 780,000, for a total of 2,12 millions casualties. But there is evidence pointing more to 3 millions, that's why they are complaining about the lack of infantry and why there is need to lower the mobilization age to 18.
Vlahos gives an excellent summary of the current state of the Ukraine proxy war — and the choices ahead. For those interested in additional backstory about how Russophobia has been nurtured and maintained in the collective West for centuries (much like Orientalism and Anti-Semitism), try reading Guy Mettan’s book “Creating Russophobia” (2017) — an excellent read.
Excellent. I hope someone close to Trump sees and conveys this to him. Why are there not more Ukrainians speaking out against the manipulation of their countrymen into cannon fodder for Washington and Brussels? Prof Katchanovski has done great research exposing the events of Feb 2014. But why are there not more Ukrainians speaking out? It would help a lot to have Ukrainian voices demanding an end to the slaughter.
The deciders could end this war. But then they would have to pay the market price for the Russian resources. And they probably feel it is unfair that Russia is so wealthy and so undeserving. The forget Thou shalt not covet they neighbors goods.
Very good post. Loved the title:Accepting the Truth About Ukrainian Casualties is the Only Real Path to Peace
Although I missed this being elaborated in the text, certainly thefirst step to peace is an international reassessment of the damage we have done to Ukrainians. We, the west, have killed 1 million Ukrainians by using them as our proxies and our fighting to the last Ukrianian deliberate policy. Until that is spoken out loud the west is unable to even think about the topic.
On the numbers, the 780k estimate would be about 1 million by now, and I gather that the daily figures put out by Russian MOD added together reached 1 millon a few days ago.
So I fully back these estimates - any estimate below 500k dead is flat out lying.
Civilians. This really is the most civilian friendly war in history.
the Mediazone estimate is 12,000 civilian deaths (I have seen a little higher) - certainly under 2% of military deaths.
For contrast one third of French deaths in WW1 France were civilians.
In Britain in WW2 15% of deaths were civilian though of course the front line never crossed the channel.
This, the tiny forces used by Russia demonstrate that the SMO really was a Policing expedition for the first 6 months, and even now nothing like the full scale invasion we keep being told. Again until the west understands this how can it possibly negotiate an end.
The author makes a great point about the Wet dream of a reformed Ukraine refreshed by the return of its runaways ready to fight Russia again. It does read like a US victory - whch is no doubt why it is being pushed in the make believe media world. Yes, even if Russia did accept it (they won't) it would still be a disaster, no male between 12 and 65 is returning to that rump state, and not mother or sister or girlfriend or wife would let them.
So it is not just Russia that demands an eternal exit of Nato from Ukraine, it has to be Ukrainians too.
Dear m droy, Thank you for reading. Your long and heartfelt comment speaks eloquently of the terrible, reckless course of this war, brought on by a decade of a feckless and venal enterprise within the dark precincts of the Imperial Palace. Kick-backs for which a million Ukrainians might, and for which we expect gratitude for our assistance in their national suicide? What a corrupt world we inhabit.
Yes kickbacks is a major part. Just as Afghanistan lasted almost 20 years because of all the kickbacks to Washington from over $2 trillion of spending, Money is one of the drivers here.
Lets hope Ukraine stops this Suicide by SuperPower craziness, and sorts out a proper government with enough self control that it can be a stable neighbour for Russia. Priority number 1 should be a Ukrainian government.
"We, the west, have killed 1 million Ukrainians by using them as our proxies and our fighting to the last Ukrianian deliberate policy. Until that is spoken out loud the west is unable to even think about the topic."
You make a very good point. Those of us who follow this tragedy closely know this is so, but even for us it's easy to forget the coldhearted depravity inherent in persistently pushing a country to sacrifice itself for the geopolitical games of the West.
To the Russian estimate you should add a couple of other numbers. Before being put (around Autumn 2022) under the command of the Russian Armed Forces assisting them, the militias of the LPR and DPR were conducting their own operations and keeping their own "stats", that they released on 2 Telegram channels that were later closed. The sum of their daily bulletins reached about 10k enemies killed. The same goes for PMC Wagner. After the fall of Bakhmut, in an interview, Prigozhin gave the numbers of a little more than 72k enemies killed counting since the start of the operations (Popasna, Soledar and of course Bakhmut) where Wagner was involved. The numbers provided by the Russian MOD do not take into consideration the attacks in the rear conducted by glidebombs and balistic/cruise missiles or heavy drones like Geran-2. For the rest, I agree, there is plenty of informations available that put together brings the total casualties of Ukraine at around 3 millions including a million dead.
Yes. The Russian reports use a Russian term which does not necessarily mean dead, but certainly not returning to the battlefield.
I am assuming survivors are more or less mathced with those hit with the long range weapons you describe. Russia only reports what it can confirm (and while I am sure it has spies feeding back from longe range targets it is probably best not to report that).
I replied to another comment of yours why I think it is 1m + 1m, and not a total of 3m.
Thanks James! I will read Mettan's book. I have also highlighted this overarching issue, a decade past, here:
https://www.theglobalist.com/putins-and-russias-quest-for-identity-and-belonging/
Dr. Vlahos is absolutely correct about the urgent need for a permanent peace agreement; a ceasefire will not be sufficient. Russia has alway made clear what are its security objectives (no NATO membership for Ukraine and a pan-European security agreement). However, the US War Party has always hidden its prime objective to weaken Russia with moral rhetoric designed to manipulate and control American public opinion. The question is how do we break free of the assumptions and beliefs imposed by such elites which have resulted in so much death and destruction?
Thank you so much for reading, and for your penetrating comment!
Excellent analysis and insight. It’s a shame that truth is the casualty when narrative rules.
Thank you for reading!
Excellent indeed.
Posted about it on X yesterday:
https://x.com/ingolfeide/status/1877903845881524677?s=46&t=rkrvYEs4rPHnskyeeLxSjg
Thank you so much for reading, and commenting!
My pleasure.
Dear Luca, I was being deliberately conservative. Personally I feel that your higher total, tragically, is probably closer to the true number. I have 'irrecoverable' casualties at ~1.2 million, you have it a couple hundred thousand higher. Our 'invalid' wounded figures are the same: 420k. However, you put KIA considerably higher, and ~1 million. This is very distressing, and almost certainly true.
This is an analytical difficulty that US/NATO voices fear to parse. The key variable here is the longstanding incapacity of Ukraine to extract its wounded from the forward edge of the battle area [FEBA] in time to save their lives. Thus, there is for Ukraine, an unacknowledged descent into ancient casualty results. Whereas in Modernity, the KIA-to-WIA ratio might be 4:1 — or in the 'golden hour' dispensation of Americans in Iraq, 16:1 — for Ukrainian troopers their prospects, frankly, are worse than those of World War I, or even the American Civil War. Hence, I would expect, when it all comes out, that there are something like a million Ukrainian wounded. Many crippled, many amputees. Ukrainian amputees are already greater in number than what the German Empire suffered in World War I!
Let me add a few informations here:
About the wounded to killed ratio.
Acoording to NYT article of August 18th, 2023 the most optimistic ratio was 1,71 (120k wounded and 70k dead). A very close ratio was given by Ukrainian Telegram channel Resident on November 5th, 2024 where, commenting the Kursk incursion, they wrote about 30k casualties and they specified that 11k were the dead and 19k wounded. In this case the ratio was about 1,73.
The association of American military surgeons wrote an article about the misuse of tourniquets in Ukraine that were justified only in 25% of the cases.
If we consider the last 8 exchanges of corpses, the Ukrainians received 3547 bodies against 380 Russian ones.
At the beginning of December 2024, again Ukrainian Telegram channel Resident claimed about 420k war invalids.
A couple of humanitarian organizations (including houp) confirmed such numbers.
In July 2023 Hanna Malyar wrote that 18% of the wounded became invalids. That percentage of invalids grew to 30% in September 2024 according to Anatoliy Kazmirchuk, Commander of the Medical Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, due to the use of more powerful bombs by the Russian aviation like the FAB-1500 and FAB-3000.
A roughly average gives the % of invalids at 25.
420k invalids equals to about 1,68 millions of total wounded.
1,68 millions of total wounded divided by a ratio of about 1,72 wounded to killed brings the number of Ukrainians dead soldiers at around a million.
A count of obituaries (like Mediazona does for the other side) kept by Slavyangrad stands at 559k Ukrainians dead soldiers. WarTears, an Ukrainian site and Telegram Channel, places it’s latest estimate at 663k Ukrainians dead soldiers.
If, like Mediazona does, we consider the numbers found as lower than the real numbers, we easily reach the million mark explained above.
By collecting in the last 3 years the equivalent of 4 or 5 pages of A4 of OSINT “evidence” from Ukrainian and Western sources, I was able to gather what I wrote here.
This is an analytical difficulty that US/NATO voices fear to parse. The key variable here is the longstanding incapacity of Ukraine to extract its wounded from the forward edge of the battle area [FEBA] in time to save their lives. Thus, there is for Ukraine, an unacknowledged descent into ancient casualty results. Whereas in Modernity, the KIA-to-WIA ratio might be 4:1 — or in the 'golden hour' dispensation of Americans in Iraq, 16:1 — for Ukrainian troopers their prospects, frankly, are worse than those of World War I, or even the American Civil War. Hence, I would expect, when it all comes out, that there are something like a million Ukrainian wounded. Many crippled, many amputees. Ukrainian amputees are already greater in number than what the German Empire suffered in World War I!
What may help change the narrative would be to release to the public the negotiations before the war, three days of zoom calls between Biden and Putin.
Though reported on at the time, they seem to have been memory-holed, likely because they complicate the "unprovoked" framing. Putin wanted to fly over for face-to-face meetings but was refused. Politico did a large piece on it at the time, saying how Biden spent his time in between talks lining up what were to be "crippling" sanctions with European leaders. But all I can find of the story now is a short, empty white house statement about "the importance of negotiations" but a refusal to hear any talk of invasions.
Surely the public would be interested in hearing what was said? History deserves to know.
A terrific point — I could not agree more!
Thanks for your reply. The truth will come to light only with a new census. Up to that point, It is very easy for Ukrainian authorities to conceal any casualties. They are the first not knowing the true numbers of inhabitants where to start the reckonings. I agree, it is a tragedy of enormous proportions and when I read about lowering the draft age down to 18, nothing good could ever come out of it and my stomach churns. First the age section between 25 and 18 years is the shortest branch in the Ukrainian demographic tree, a clear sign of desperation. And second it means to send to their death the persons that should become parents in the next few years. In other words it is a ricept towards the abyss.
The scariest part is how the carnage has been so completely concealed from the public! Despite the Internet and a supposed free press, there has been a complete blanket surrounding information on the true state of the war for the last 1,000 days.
The Western media did their best to conceal as much as possible, but if you, like I did, have had the patience to collect information (the equivalent of 4 - 5 A4 pages) from serious Telegram channels and articles that here and there inevitably came to the surface, ranging from the volume of firepower applied, the status of the healthcare system, the wounded to killed ratios, the total numbers of war invalids, the invalids as a percentage of the total wounded, critics to the misuse of tourniquets, too slow times of evacuations of the wounded, exchanged corpses ratios, and so on…you can gather enough information to be able to estimate (of course with a certain level of uncertainty, but also with a high level of confidence) that the Ukrainian losses are around 3 millions, including about 1 million dead and 420 thousands war invalids. All these informations have been written in the last 3 years, and with numbers provided by Western and Ukrainian OSINT sources alone.
Yes, but in the UK, US, Canada, etc there is still a complete traditional and online media blackout around this. You are a special case of person doing all their own research. It is frightening that reporters aren’t doing the same work, or are doing it but not allowed to publish.
If the Ukrainians have approximately 780,000 KIA, how many other casualties do you think that there are?
About the wounded to killed ratio:
Acoording to NYT article of August 18th, 2023 the most optimistic ratio was 1,71 (120k wounded and 70k dead). A very close ratio was given by Ukrainian Telegram channel Resident on November 5th, 2024 where, commenting the Kursk incursion, they wrote about 30k casualties and they specified that 11k were the dead and 19k wounded. In this case the ratio was about 1,73.
With such a wounded to killed ratio you could add another 1,34 millions to 780,000, for a total of 2,12 millions casualties. But there is evidence pointing more to 3 millions, that's why they are complaining about the lack of infantry and why there is need to lower the mobilization age to 18.
Vlahos gives an excellent summary of the current state of the Ukraine proxy war — and the choices ahead. For those interested in additional backstory about how Russophobia has been nurtured and maintained in the collective West for centuries (much like Orientalism and Anti-Semitism), try reading Guy Mettan’s book “Creating Russophobia” (2017) — an excellent read.
Excellent. I hope someone close to Trump sees and conveys this to him. Why are there not more Ukrainians speaking out against the manipulation of their countrymen into cannon fodder for Washington and Brussels? Prof Katchanovski has done great research exposing the events of Feb 2014. But why are there not more Ukrainians speaking out? It would help a lot to have Ukrainian voices demanding an end to the slaughter.
The deciders could end this war. But then they would have to pay the market price for the Russian resources. And they probably feel it is unfair that Russia is so wealthy and so undeserving. The forget Thou shalt not covet they neighbors goods.
Very good post. Loved the title:Accepting the Truth About Ukrainian Casualties is the Only Real Path to Peace
Although I missed this being elaborated in the text, certainly thefirst step to peace is an international reassessment of the damage we have done to Ukrainians. We, the west, have killed 1 million Ukrainians by using them as our proxies and our fighting to the last Ukrianian deliberate policy. Until that is spoken out loud the west is unable to even think about the topic.
On the numbers, the 780k estimate would be about 1 million by now, and I gather that the daily figures put out by Russian MOD added together reached 1 millon a few days ago.
So I fully back these estimates - any estimate below 500k dead is flat out lying.
Civilians. This really is the most civilian friendly war in history.
the Mediazone estimate is 12,000 civilian deaths (I have seen a little higher) - certainly under 2% of military deaths.
For contrast one third of French deaths in WW1 France were civilians.
In Britain in WW2 15% of deaths were civilian though of course the front line never crossed the channel.
This, the tiny forces used by Russia demonstrate that the SMO really was a Policing expedition for the first 6 months, and even now nothing like the full scale invasion we keep being told. Again until the west understands this how can it possibly negotiate an end.
The author makes a great point about the Wet dream of a reformed Ukraine refreshed by the return of its runaways ready to fight Russia again. It does read like a US victory - whch is no doubt why it is being pushed in the make believe media world. Yes, even if Russia did accept it (they won't) it would still be a disaster, no male between 12 and 65 is returning to that rump state, and not mother or sister or girlfriend or wife would let them.
So it is not just Russia that demands an eternal exit of Nato from Ukraine, it has to be Ukrainians too.
Dear m droy, Thank you for reading. Your long and heartfelt comment speaks eloquently of the terrible, reckless course of this war, brought on by a decade of a feckless and venal enterprise within the dark precincts of the Imperial Palace. Kick-backs for which a million Ukrainians might, and for which we expect gratitude for our assistance in their national suicide? What a corrupt world we inhabit.
Yes kickbacks is a major part. Just as Afghanistan lasted almost 20 years because of all the kickbacks to Washington from over $2 trillion of spending, Money is one of the drivers here.
Lets hope Ukraine stops this Suicide by SuperPower craziness, and sorts out a proper government with enough self control that it can be a stable neighbour for Russia. Priority number 1 should be a Ukrainian government.
"We, the west, have killed 1 million Ukrainians by using them as our proxies and our fighting to the last Ukrianian deliberate policy. Until that is spoken out loud the west is unable to even think about the topic."
You make a very good point. Those of us who follow this tragedy closely know this is so, but even for us it's easy to forget the coldhearted depravity inherent in persistently pushing a country to sacrifice itself for the geopolitical games of the West.
How I resonate with your sentiment! Thank you for commenting!
To the Russian estimate you should add a couple of other numbers. Before being put (around Autumn 2022) under the command of the Russian Armed Forces assisting them, the militias of the LPR and DPR were conducting their own operations and keeping their own "stats", that they released on 2 Telegram channels that were later closed. The sum of their daily bulletins reached about 10k enemies killed. The same goes for PMC Wagner. After the fall of Bakhmut, in an interview, Prigozhin gave the numbers of a little more than 72k enemies killed counting since the start of the operations (Popasna, Soledar and of course Bakhmut) where Wagner was involved. The numbers provided by the Russian MOD do not take into consideration the attacks in the rear conducted by glidebombs and balistic/cruise missiles or heavy drones like Geran-2. For the rest, I agree, there is plenty of informations available that put together brings the total casualties of Ukraine at around 3 millions including a million dead.
Yes. The Russian reports use a Russian term which does not necessarily mean dead, but certainly not returning to the battlefield.
I am assuming survivors are more or less mathced with those hit with the long range weapons you describe. Russia only reports what it can confirm (and while I am sure it has spies feeding back from longe range targets it is probably best not to report that).
I replied to another comment of yours why I think it is 1m + 1m, and not a total of 3m.