Seems to me you're right. Any attempt at achieving an agreed peace is likely to fail, quite possibly ignominiously so for at least one of the parties (probably Trump).
Nothing he could offer can meet Russia's needs after more than 2 1/2 years of fighting with victory on the battlefield within their grasp, and a horror of ending up with some sort of fresh "Minsk" arrangement.
Someone (perhaps Alexander Mercouris shortly after the election) said Trump would be best to simply walk away from Ukraine. Label the whole thing Biden's folly and suspend further military aid. He'd be off the hook politically and Ukraine would have to realistically consider its position and possibilities. The internal politics of Ukraine might begin to reassert itself.
If Trump doesn't walk away, as seems likely since if he meant to he should have done so at once, your approach of letting the conflict grind on (pending eventual exhaustion on Ukraine's part) may, paradoxically, be the least risky.
My guess is Russia sees things similarly and will avoid any radical escalation that could trigger a phase change.
I enjoyed your speculation and rumination on the war and the prospects for peace in the near term w/Trump and company. This open-ended approach has more application in a conflict between non-nuclear powers. That is, we can let it play out and see how things settle. I don’t think we have that luxury now. The last three years have been the slow motion run up to the final act when the pace quickens and final solutions have irreversible consequences. No one is blinking and endless, permanent war is not achievable and defeat is unimaginable.
I enjoy reading an essay by Professor Taki. He always begins with a quick-witted sentence, which compels me to read further. I also appreciate strategies to counter the War Party. However, keeping the war within acceptable limits seems to be a like a ship that has already sailed, not to mention it would continue the useless loss of life. In addiditon, one man's or nation's rationality is another man's irrationality. Moreover, once Biden - or whoever is making such decisions at this time - gave Zelensky permission to fire ATACMS into Russian territory and the Russians responded with the hypersonic Orshniks, a genie was let out of a bottle. This genie cannot be put back. Biden has also convinced Scholz to implement American intermediate range cruise missles on German land to use against Russia in 2026.
Seems to me you're right. Any attempt at achieving an agreed peace is likely to fail, quite possibly ignominiously so for at least one of the parties (probably Trump).
Nothing he could offer can meet Russia's needs after more than 2 1/2 years of fighting with victory on the battlefield within their grasp, and a horror of ending up with some sort of fresh "Minsk" arrangement.
Someone (perhaps Alexander Mercouris shortly after the election) said Trump would be best to simply walk away from Ukraine. Label the whole thing Biden's folly and suspend further military aid. He'd be off the hook politically and Ukraine would have to realistically consider its position and possibilities. The internal politics of Ukraine might begin to reassert itself.
If Trump doesn't walk away, as seems likely since if he meant to he should have done so at once, your approach of letting the conflict grind on (pending eventual exhaustion on Ukraine's part) may, paradoxically, be the least risky.
My guess is Russia sees things similarly and will avoid any radical escalation that could trigger a phase change.
I enjoyed your speculation and rumination on the war and the prospects for peace in the near term w/Trump and company. This open-ended approach has more application in a conflict between non-nuclear powers. That is, we can let it play out and see how things settle. I don’t think we have that luxury now. The last three years have been the slow motion run up to the final act when the pace quickens and final solutions have irreversible consequences. No one is blinking and endless, permanent war is not achievable and defeat is unimaginable.
Indeed. We are going from MAD to NUTS (hazelnuts, that is).
It was Radio Erevan, not Radio Armenia.
Another "pearl": Can you have bath if you have diarheea? Yes, if you have enough of it...
I enjoy reading an essay by Professor Taki. He always begins with a quick-witted sentence, which compels me to read further. I also appreciate strategies to counter the War Party. However, keeping the war within acceptable limits seems to be a like a ship that has already sailed, not to mention it would continue the useless loss of life. In addiditon, one man's or nation's rationality is another man's irrationality. Moreover, once Biden - or whoever is making such decisions at this time - gave Zelensky permission to fire ATACMS into Russian territory and the Russians responded with the hypersonic Orshniks, a genie was let out of a bottle. This genie cannot be put back. Biden has also convinced Scholz to implement American intermediate range cruise missles on German land to use against Russia in 2026.